Using STATS X-Info metrics and roster rankings to project favorites vs. the Vegas standard odds.
The unpredictability of the NFL showed in true form during Week 1, with Hurricane Irma postponing Tampa Bay-Miami, the Chiefs routing defending Super Bowl champion New England and Philadelphia earning a comfortable victory at Washington.
Well, the first two occurrences were tough to predict anyway.
STATS’ X-Info metrics labeled the Eagles as a 7.88-point favorite over the Redskins last week, compared to the Las Vegas consensus spread that foresaw a close game with Philly favored by just a single point. The Eagles went on to win 30-17.
STATS uses proprietary data to project spreads for each NFL game. STATS X-Info calculates roster rankings based on injuries, statistical data and depth at each position, then compares that to an opponent and arrives at a conclusion – the projected spread.
The data last week also had Baltimore favored over Cincinnati and Jacksonville a favorite against Houston despite Vegas seeing it differently. The Ravens and Jaguars both won convincingly.
The Texans and Bengals will try to bounce back on Thursday Night Football. Let’s have a look at the STATS vs. Vegas spreads for the entire Week 2 slate, as of Thursday afternoon.
Group 1: STATS’ projection doesn’t always line up with the Vegas consensus. In some cases, the spreads are very far apart:
Houston at Cincinnati
STATS: Texans -0.03
Vegas: Bengals -6
Neither team looked very good in Week 1. Looks like the Vegas oddsmakers have plenty of confidence Andy Dalton can be a serviceable quarterback Thursday night.
Chicago at Tampa Bay
STATS: Bears -0.04
Vegas: Buccaneers -7
Chicago played defending NFC champion Atlanta tough at home before falling short on the final drive. The Bucs were displaced by Irma and now begin a stretch of playing 16 consecutive weeks. STATS is depending on the Bears’ solid showing to carry over and Tampa to still have some rust.
Minnesota at Pittsburgh
STATS: Vikings -0.96
Vegas: Steelers -5.5
Minnesota pulled away for a 10-point win over New Orleans on Monday with help from rookie running back Dalvin Cook. Pittsburgh had to hold on to beat lowly Cleveland. Vegas doesn’t seem too worried about the Steelers recovering for a tougher opponent.
Philadelphia at Kansas City
STATS: Eagles -2.43
Vegas: Chiefs -5.5
Once again, STATS’ model has Philadelphia with the second-best roster rank in the NFL and is high on the Eagles to beat their former head coach, Andy Reid. Vegas? Not so much after the Chiefs handled the Patriots rather easily.
Dallas at Denver
STATS: Broncos -3.89
Vegas: Cowboys -2
Maybe Vegas is putting too much confidence in the Dallas defense that looked good against the Odell Beckham Jr.-less Giants last week.
Group 2: Occasionally, STATS and Vegas agree – for the most part – as noted in the games below:
Buffalo at Carolina
STATS: Panthers -5.23
Vegas: Panthers -7
Cleveland at Baltimore
STATS: Ravens -6.86
Vegas: Ravens -8
Green Bay at Atlanta
STATS: Falcons -2.54
Vegas: Falcons -3
Detroit at New York Giants
STATS: Giants -1.02
Vegas: Giants -3
Miami at Los Angeles Chargers
STATS: Chargers -1.44
Vegas: Chargers -4
Group 3: There are moments STATS and Vegas at least agree on the favorite, but there is a pretty decent margin between the STATS spread and the Vegas spread:
San Francisco at Seattle
STATS: Seattle -5.93
Vegas: Seattle -14
Washington at Los Angeles Rams
STATS: Rams -6.75
Vegas: Rams -2.75
New England at New Orleans
STATS: Patriots -2.1
Vegas: Patriots -6.5
Group 4: Then there are games when STATS and Vegas don’t agree even in the slightest bit:
New York Jets at Oakland
STATS: Jets -0.64
Vegas: Raiders -13.5
Tennessee at Jacksonville
STATS: Jaguars -7.3
Vegas: Titans -1.5
STATS’ projection model absolutely loves Jacksonville’s defense, which sacked Texans quarterbacks 10 times in Week 1.
Arizona at Indianapolis
STATS: Colts -1.38
Vegas: Cardinals -7
The Colts are considering starting the newly acquired Jacoby Brissett with Andrew Luck still hurting, and that might be enough to change their fortunes after being routed by the Rams last week.
