Using STATS X-Info metrics and roster rankings to project favorites vs. the Vegas standard odds
Things got back to normal in Week 4 after underdogs helped Vegas get paid handsomely the previous week. STATS favored 10 of the 16 winners, with New England’s loss to Carolina and Jacksonville’s loss to the Jets being the most surprising defeats.
STATS uses proprietary data to project spreads for each NFL game. STATS X-Info calculates roster rankings based on injuries, statistical data and depth at each position, then compares that to an opponent and arrives at a conclusion – the projected spread.
None of these spread projections mean you should empty your account and follow the STATS model to riches. X-Info simply takes into account factors Vegas may not, hence some differing views. And if you’re looking for fantasy advice, you’re still best suited to follow best-in-the-business Sean Koerner and his weekly tiers.
Have a look at how STATS projects the spreads in Week 5 against those coming out of Las Vegas as of Thursday afternoon. Usually the games break down into three groups, but it’s down to two this week after STATS and Vegas came very close on favorites/spreads for an unusual amount of games.
Group 1: Occasionally, STATS and Vegas agree – for the most part – as noted in the games below:
San Francisco at Indianapolis
STATS: 49ers -3.44
Vegas: 49ers -1.5
San Francisco is one of four winless teams remaining, but there’s so little confidence in the Colts that the Niners are rare road favorites.
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh
STATS: Steelers -10.45
Vegas: Steelers -8.5
The spreads seem pretty reasonable considering the Jaguars are coming off a loss to the, uh, Jets.
Buffalo at Cincinnati
STATS: Bengals -3.19
Vegas: Bengals -3
Not much confidence in the 3-1, AFC East-leading Bills, eh? Cincinnati won its first game last week, but maybe it should only be half of a win because it was Cleveland.
Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants
STATS: Giants -5.37
Vegas: Giants -3.5
Get your popcorn ready for the thrilling, exciting, captivating battle between 0-4 teams! No wonder the draft-night Eli Manning-for-Philip Rivers trade from 2004 is still a narrative.
Tennessee at Miami
STATS: Titans -2.41
Vegas: Titans -3
The Jay Cutler-led Dolphins have been outscored 40-6 in their last two games, but Tennessee might have to play without Marcus Mariota.
Arizona at Philadelphia
STATS: Eagles -4.84
Vegas: Eagles -6.5
The STATS model has loved the Eagles all season, and they’ve backed it up with a 3-1 start.
Seattle at Los Angeles Rams
STATS: Rams -2.65
Vegas: Rams -1
So what if the Coliseum will be half empty? The Rams have scored the most points in the league and are downright fun. They’ll get a tough test from Seattle’s defense in what could be the best game of the week.
Kansas City at Houston
STATS: Chiefs -1.34
Vegas: Chiefs -1
Kareem Hunt, meet J.J. Watt, an X-Info favorite.
Group 2: Then there are games where STATS and Vegas don’t agree at all:
New England at Tampa Bay
STATS: Buccaneers -1.38
Vegas: Patriots -5.5
The Patriots won’t really fall to 2-3, or will they?
New York Jets at Cleveland
STATS: Jets -2.83
Vegas: Browns -1
[Insert eye-roll emoji here]
Carolina at Detroit
STATS: Panthers -4.46
Vegas: Lions -2.5
Carolina shocked the Patriots last week, which is part of the reason STATS believes it can win on the road again.
Baltimore at Oakland
STATS: Ravens -4.96
Vegas: Raiders -2.5
Oakland won’t have Derek Carr, and that played into the STATS predictive model.
Green Bay at Dallas
STATS: Packers -1.43
Vegas: Cowboys -2.5
The Packers return to the sight of their thrilling Divisional Playoff victory back in January.
Minnesota at Chicago
STATS: Bears -0.06
Vegas: Vikings -3
It’s Mitch Trubisky time in Chicago, as the No. 2 overall pick in this year’s draft makes his NFL debut.
