Using STATS X-Info metrics and roster rankings to project favorites vs. the Las Vegas standard odds
How many believed Kansas City would lose to Pittsburgh at home last week for its first loss of the season? STATS likely was one of the few, projecting the Steelers as favorites when Vegas had the Chiefs at minus-4.5.
And while some continue to doubt the Los Angeles Rams, that’s not the case with STATS’ model. The Rams beat Jacksonville 27-17 and were favored by STATS when Vegas favored the Jaguars.
STATS uses proprietary data to project spreads for each NFL game. STATS X-Info calculates roster rankings based on injuries, statistical data and depth at each position, then compares that to an opponent and arrives at a conclusion – the projected spread.
None of these spread projections mean you should empty your account and follow the STATS model to riches. X-Info simply takes into account factors Vegas may not, hence some differing views. And if you’re looking for fantasy advice, you’re still best suited to follow best-in-the-business Sean Koerner and his weekly tiers.
Have a look at how STATS projects the spreads in Week 7 against those coming out of Las Vegas as of Thursday afternoon.
Group 1: Occasionally, STATS and Vegas agree – for the most part:
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
STATS: Jaguars -2.91
Vegas: Jaguars -3
Crucial matchup in an AFC South division that’s pretty much blah. Jags are 2-1 on the road, Colts are 2-1 at home.
Tennessee at Cleveland
STATS: Titans -6.69
Vegas: Titans -6
The sad part is that the Browns aren’t even trying to be bad anymore.
Seattle at New York Giants
STATS: Seahawks -5.13
Vegas: Seahawks -5.5
These seem like fair lines despite the Giants picking up their first win last week in Denver. This still is a pieced-together group.
Atlanta at New England
STATS: Patriots -1.99
Vegas: Patriots -3.5
Super Bowl rematch! Here’s to hoping the Falcons jump out to a big lead so the narrative continues.
New Orleans at Green Bay
STATS: Saints -3.2
Vegas: Saints -4.5
The Packers are home underdogs in their first game without Aaron Rodgers. It’s up to Brett Hundley in his first NFL start.
Arizona at Los Angeles Rams
STATS: Rams -4.41
Vegas: Rams -3
Todd Gurley idolized Adrian Peterson before and during college. Gurley is looking more and more like a younger version of Peterson each week. Then again, after a 134-yard, two-touchdown effort in his Cardinals debut, so is Peterson himself.
Carolina at Chicago
STATS: Panthers -1.28
Vegas: Panthers -3
The Bears winning in Baltimore last week was pretty surprising. They’ll get a well-rest Panthers team following last Thursday’s loss to Philadelphia.
Washington at Philadelphia
STATS: Eagles -2.39
Vegas: Eagles -4.5
Speaking of the Eagles, they’re 5-1 and Carson Wentz is playing well. Kirk Cousins is going to need a nearly flawless performance Monday night for Washington to win.
Group 2: STATS and Vegas agree on the favorite, but the spreads are pretty far apart.
Kansas City at Oakland
STATS: Chiefs -0.7
Vegas: Chiefs -3
These games are close more often than not, and it’s on a Thursday. The Chiefs could be in some trouble.
New York Jets at Miami
STATS: Dolphins -0.89
Vegas: Dolphins -3
Sometimes we sit around and wonder how these two teams have combined for six wins.
Dallas at San Francisco
STATS: Cowboys -3.41
Vegas: Cowboys -6
The Cowboys are fresh off their bye week and also will have Ezekiel Elliott.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
STATS: Steelers -2.65
Vegas: Steelers -5.5
Pittsburgh wouldn’t really lose to the Bengals after beating previously unbeaten Kansas City, would it?
Group 3: The games STATS and Vegas don’t agree on at all:
Tampa Bay at Buffalo
STATS: Buccaneers -1.41
Vegas: Bills -3
There’s still no word if Jameis Winston will play, but STATS is banking that he will.
Denver at Los Angeles Chargers
STATS: Broncos -2.02
Vegas: Chargers -1
That Denver loss to the Giants doesn’t give many confidence in the Broncos, but STATS still believes.
Baltimore at Minnesota
STATS: Ravens -1.78
Vegas: Vikings -5.5
By far the biggest gap of the week. STATS putting its faith in Joe Flacco.
