Using STATS X-Info metrics and roster rankings to project NFL favorites vs. the Vegas standard odds
Jared Goff and Carson Wentz are ready to share the NFL’s biggest stage once again. The difference this time is it will be on the field in the most anticipated game of the week.
The Rams selected Goff with the No. 1 pick of the 2015 draft before Philadelphia snagged Wentz at No. 2, with both teams trading up to select them. Two years later, they’re two of the best in the NFC, and it’s largely because of the improved quarterback play. Wentz ranks sixth in the league with a 102.0 passer rating for the 10-2 Eagles, while Goff is ninth at 98.4 for the 9-3 Rams.
Los Angeles opened as a consensus two-point favorite over the visiting Eagles in Vegas, but how does STATS see that game playing out when all the data is pumped into its model?
STATS uses proprietary data to project spreads for each NFL game. STATS X-Info calculates roster rankings based on injuries, statistical data and depth at each position, then compares that to an opponent and arrives at a conclusion – the projected spread.
None of these spread projections mean you should empty your account and follow the STATS model to riches. X-Info simply takes into account factors Vegas may not, hence some differing views. And if you’re looking for fantasy advice, you’re still best suited to follow best-in-the-business Sean Koerner and his weekly tiers.
Have a look at how STATS projects the spreads in Week 14 against those coming out of Las Vegas as of Thursday afternoon. We’re also going to structure things differently this week and divide games into two sections instead of three. Those projected scores for each game are new as well.
Group 1 – STATS Lines Similar to Vegas (Within 4 Points):
New Orleans at Atlanta
STATS: Falcons -1.91
Vegas: Falcons -2.5
Projected score: Falcons 24, Saints 23
Indianapolis at Buffalo
STATS: Colts -0.71
Vegas: EVEN
Projected score: Colts 20, Bills 19
Green Bay at Cleveland
STATS: Packers -1.36
Vegas: Packers -3
Projected score: Packers 22, Browns 20
Minnesota at Carolina
STATS: Vikings -0.5
Vegas: Vikings -2.5
Projected score: Vikings 27, Panthers 26
Dallas at New York Giants
STATS: Cowboys -1.3
Vegas: Cowboys -4
Projected score: Cowboys 22, Giants 21
New York Jets at Denver
STATS: Jets -4.34
Vegas: Jets -1
Projected score: Jets 23, Broncos 19
Baltimore at Pittsburgh
STATS: Steelers -1.96
Vegas: Steelers -5
Projected score: Steelers 23, Ravens 21
Group 2 – STATS Lines Not Similar to Vegas:
Chicago at Cincinnati
STATS: Bengals -11.19
Vegas: Bengals -6
Projected score: Bengals 27, Bears 16
Washington at Los Angeles Chargers
STATS: Chargers -11.01
Vegas: Chargers -6
Projected score: Chargers 23, Redskins 12
New England at Miami
STATS: Patriots -21.22
Vegas: Patriots -11
Projected score: Patriots 35, Dolphins 14
Oakland at Kansas City
STATS: Raiders -4.5
Vegas: Chiefs -4
Projected score: Raiders 27, Chiefs 23
San Francisco at Houston
STATS: 49ers -2.34
Vegas: Texans -3
Projected score: 49ers 21, Texans 19
Detroit at Tampa Bay
STATS: Lions -6.58
Vegas: EVEN
Projected score: Lions 27, Bucs 20
Tennessee at Arizona
STATS: Cardinals -2.56
Vegas: Titans -3
Projected score: Cardinals 21, Titans 19
Philadelphia at Los Angeles Rams
STATS: Eagles -4.54
Vegas: Rams -2
Projected score: Eagles 24, Rams 19
Seattle at Jacksonville
STATS: Seahawks -0.43
Vegas: Jaguars -2.5
Projected score: Seahawks 19, Jaguars 18
