Using STATS X-Info metrics and roster rankings to project NFL favorites vs. the Vegas standard odds
The NFC South is arguably the best division in the NFL despite Tampa Bay sitting at the bottom with a 4-10 record. The other three teams are making the conference’s playoff picture look less clear, as an Atlanta victory over New Orleans this week would give the South three 10-win teams.
The last time that happened was 2001, when New England, Miami and the New York Jets did in the AFC East. The NFL went to four divisions in each conference the following year, and the feat hasn’t been accomplished since.
STATS believes it’ll happen Sunday with a Falcons victory, favoring them and projecting a close victory. Las Vegas has the Saints getting the job done at home, but that’s one of just a few games STATS and Vegas disagree on this week.
STATS uses proprietary data to project spreads for each NFL game. STATS X-Info calculates roster rankings based on injuries, statistical data and depth at each position, then compares that to an opponent and arrives at a conclusion – the projected spread.
None of these spread projections mean you should empty your account and follow the STATS model to riches. X-Info simply takes into account factors Vegas may not, hence some differing views. And if you’re looking for fantasy advice, you’re still best suited to follow best-in-the-business Sean Koerner and his weekly tiers.
Have a look at how STATS projects the spreads in Week 16 against those coming out of Las Vegas as of Friday afternoon. The games are separated into two groups based on the difference between STATS’ spread and the Vegas spread, along with the projected scores from the STATS model.
Group 1 – STATS Lines Similar to Vegas (Within 4 Points):
Indianapolis at Baltimore
STATS: Ravens -14.36
Vegas: Ravens -13.5
Projected score: Ravens 27, Colts 13
Buffalo at New England
STATS: Patriots -10.79
Vegas: Patriots -12
Projected score: Patriots 28, Bills 18
Cleveland at Chicago
STATS: Bears -4.55
Vegas: Bears -6.5
Projected score: Bears 25, Browns 21
Tampa Bay at Carolina
STATS: Panthers -6.83
Vegas: Panthers -10
Projected score: Panthers 30, Bucs 23
Denver at Washington
STATS: Redskins -1.12
Vegas: Redskins -3.5
Projected score: Redskins 17, Broncos 16
Los Angeles Rams at Tennessee
STATS: Rams -6.29
Vegas: Rams -7
Projected score: Rams 30, Titans 24
Los Angeles Chargers at New York Jets
STATS: Chargers -9.62
Vegas: Chargers -7
Projected score: Chargers 22, Jets 13
Jacksonville at San Francisco
STATS: Jaguars -0.59
Vegas: Jaguars -4
Projected score: Jaguars 21, 49ers 20
New York Giants at Arizona
STATS: Cardinals -3.73
Vegas: Cardinals -3.5
Projected score: Cardinals 20, Giants 17
Pittsburgh at Houston
STATS: Steelers 11.45
Vegas: Steelers -9.5
Projected score: Steelers 28, Texans 16
Oakland at Philadelphia
STATS: Eagles -11.5
Vegas: Eagles -9
Projected score: Eagles 25, Raiders 14
Minnesota at Green Bay
STATS: Vikings -5.16
Vegas: Vikings -9
Projected score: Vikings 27, Packers 22
Seattle at Dallas
STATS: Cowboys -1.7
Vegas: Cowboys -5
Projected score: Cowboys 20, Seahawks 19
Group 2 – STATS Lines Not Similar to Vegas:
Atlanta at New Orleans
STATS: Falcons -1.47
Vegas: Saints -5.5
Projected score: Falcons 29, Saints 27
Detroit at Cincinnati
STATS: Bengals -0.8
Vegas: Lions -4
Projected score: Bengals 22, Lions 20
Miami at Kansas City
STATS: Chiefs -2.92
Vegas: Chiefs -10.5
Projected score: Chiefs 22, Dolphins 18
