Stats Perform’s Fantasy Football Outliers: Week 12

Week 12 brings a huge slate of important NFL contests.

The playoff implications in Dallas Cowboys-New England Patriots, Green Bay Packers-San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens-Los Angeles Rams are all significant. But what fantasy owners will be worried about is the impact these games might have on their playoff push.

Dak Prescott and the rest of the Cowboys offense have been carrying many-a-fantasy-team, but will they still be able to get it done against New England’s dominant defense? The Packers face a similarly difficult proposition on Sunday night against the 49ers, while the Ravens and Rams seem primed for a high-octane contest Monday.

To guide you through each of these fantasy dilemmas, and others, Stats Perform’s fantasy projections are here.

We’ve pinpointed players at quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end in a half PPR-scoring format that we project are either higher or lower than other experts’ rankings. Half PPR grants a half-point for a reception, a nice blend between standard scoring and full PPR leagues.

For the consensus rankings, we’re using FantasyPros, which aggregates major fantasy sites’ picks, to compare our projections with others in the industry.

Detroit Lions quarterback Jeff Driskel (2) scrambles with the ball during the second half against the Dallas Cowboys, Sunday, Nov. 17, 2019.

Quarterback – Undervalued:

Jeff Driskel, Detroit Lions

Stats Perform Ranking: 10

FantasyPros Ranking: 18

Driskel is no Matt Stafford. But from a fantasy perspective, he’s stepped in admirably for an injured Stafford with four total touchdowns, 478 total passing yards and 88 rushing yards in the past two weeks.

His outlook gets a boost with a great matchup against a Washington Redskins defense that is fifth-worst in the league in Stats Perform’s Defensive Burn Rating. Driskel manages to supplement that value with his ability to make plays on the run.

Don’t expect a Lamar Jackson-esque output, but Driskel projects along the same lines as Josh Allen in Week 12.

Quarterback – Overvalued:

Tom Brady, New England Patriots

Stats Perform Ranking: 19

FantasyPros Ranking: 9

Brady hasn’t been his usual self in 2019. His touchdown percentage of 3.5% is the lowest of his career. He’s only averaging 6.8 yards per pass attempt, his lowest output since ’06. Perhaps we should have expected this from a quarterback who turned 42 years old at the start of the season.

From a fantasy perspective, Brady – and the entire Patriots team – is an entirely different beast from the past. They rely on a historically talented defense and have leaned on the run with 27.5 rushing attempts per game (11^th in the league).

Brady and New England face off against a Cowboys defense that ranks in the top five of Stats Perform’s Pressure Rate metric and has been very impressive in coverage as well. It seems likely that the Patriots will, once again, lean on their defense and hope for some rushing output – bad news for Brady owners.

New England Patriots running back Sony Michel in action against the Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday, Nov. 17, 2019, in Philadelphia.

Running Back – Undervalued:

Sony Michel, New England Patriots 

Stats Perform Ranking: 10

FantasyPros Ranking: 24

Michel projects well for all the reasons Brady doesn’t – primarily that the Patriots are likely to lean on the run against a Dallas defense that’s tough against the pass but vulnerable versus the ground game.

They’re currently in the bottom 10 of Stats Perform’s Run Disruption rankings and have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns. The Patriots are also expected to get talented left tackle Isaiah Wynn back this week, so they should have some success running with Michel.

Running Back – Overvalued:

Tevin Coleman, San Francisco 49ers

Stats Perform Ranking: 26

FantasyPros Ranking: 12

Coleman is a talented running back in a run-heavy offense with a favorable matchup against the Packers. However, he’s still stuck in a legitimate time-share with Raheem Mostert and Matt Breida. Even if Breida is out this week, Coleman and Mostert would likely share snaps pretty evenly.

The Packers only have two players in their front seven (Kenny Clark and Za’Darius Smith) who have positive defensive run productivity relative to league average, so it’s unlikely that Coleman will be a complete bust. But if he’s not getting the majority of carries, it’s tough to see him as a top-15 running back option.

Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Marquise Brown (15) runs on the field during the first half against the Houston Texans.

Wide Receiver – Undervalued:

Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens

Stats Perform Ranking: 19

FantasyPros Ranking: 31

The high-powered Ravens are set to go up against a solid Rams defense. Los Angeles has looked impressive since its mid-season secondary reshuffling, but the team still has a tendency to get beat deep. That tendency is a product of their aggressive style, which generally works because of the push up front from Aaron Donald and the rest of the talented line.

Unfortunately for the Rams, the Ravens should be able to contain that front with one of the most talented offensive lines in the league. That could give Brown – who averages 15.9 yards per catch – ample opportunities to make big plays downfield.

Wide Receiver – Overvalued:

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams

Stats Perform Ranking: 22

FantasyPros Ranking: 11

Kupp is on the other side of that Ravens-Rams matchup, and his outlook is not looking as positive. Any offensive player going against the Ravens is in a tough spot, and not just because of their strong defense.

The Ravens also hog the ball on offense, running 35.9 rushing plays per game (most in the league) and limiting opportunities for opposing offenses. With fewer snaps, Kupp may struggle to replicate his usual output.

Tight End – Undervalued:

Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins

Stats Perform Ranking: 12

FantasyPros Ranking: 24

Ever since Ryan Fitzpatrick was handed back the reins of the offense, Gesicki has shown positive signs from a fantasy perspective. Since Week 6, he’s averaging 5.3 targets – it’s clear he’s a go-to target for Fitzpatrick.

In Week 12, Gesicki goes up against a Cleveland Browns defense that has looked improved after an awful start. Still, the Browns have struggled against tight ends, and that hasn’t changed. Opposing tight ends are averaging 5.6 targets and 48.4 yards against Cleveland, and we expect Gesicki’s output to be pretty similar to that.

Tight End – Overvalued:

Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles

Stats Perform Ranking: 19

FantasyPros Ranking: 6

It’s clear that Goedert is a talented tight end, and on most other teams he would command a pretty impressive workload. On the Eagles, though, he’s stuck behind Zach Ertz, which is unfortunate for his fantasy prospects.

Goedert has still managed to produce with three touchdowns in his last four games, but the Eagles have been sorely lacking offensive weapons due to injury. His chances could be diminished this week if Jordan Howard and Alshon Jeffery are able to take the field.

Advanced analytics and data analysis provided by Stats Perform’s Kyle Cunningham-Rhoads