According to Paul, this means that STATS can effectively use individual player data to work out not just how a team will perform, but also quantify the impact of swapping players in and out of the squad. In Mo Salah’s case, STATS claims its system would be able to work out the impact on Egypt of whether he is fit enough to play or not.
“You can plug in these different situations and that would be able to generate an outcome and that measure would either be number of goals scored or conceded, or simply win probability: how does that player increase or decrease chances?" Paul explains.
“We can look at this, run the simulations and this will actually tell us: Mo Salah might be worth 0.3 of a goal, or if he isn't playing and another player comes in, that reduces the win probability by 3% or 10% or it might actually increase it depending on the team that they're actually playing against.”
